> 3 years max. Maybe 5 if you are lucky.The models will continue to improve. The exponential gains in compute efficiency that have been ongoing for 70+ years will continue and that will result in even smarter models. There are dramatic hardware changes in the pipeline.
I remember hearing that 10 years ago about self-driving.
I mean basically you and I are effectively living in parallel universes. Waymo has been running for years, and there are other services including in China and Tesla which is not 100% there but actually very effective.
And the thing he complained about is fixable with a web search, and AI does programming and office work today. So, it's already here. It's just a question of degrees.
Waymo heavily relies on real humans to get their robots unstuck. They also rely on extremely detailed mapping data, which is why they're only in a few cities.
Tesla has been a couple years away from FSD for, what, like ten years now?
If you scrape off the glitter, you'll find a lot more duct tape and wire than you think.
I remember hearing that 10 years ago about self-driving.