> With Trump, he lies so much and so casually and so blatantly, you have no idea what his policies will be. None. There is zero correlation with what he says.
I think we can have some idea. For example, it is clear that Trump regrets somewhat the overturning of Roe v Wade. He never really cared about the abortion issue – he was just pandering to GOP religious conservatives with his Supreme Court nominations. And then when he saw how many ordinary American women were angry over Dobbs, he began to feel he'd gone too far to the right on the abortion issue. So, a second Trump administration is likely going to be harsher on abortion than the Biden administration is, but still going to resist implementing most of the more extreme demands anti-abortion conservatives will present.
For many other issues: if you study what he did in his first term, the political dynamics involved, leaks of his private conversations (he's more honest in private than in front of a stadium) – you can get a sense of what he's likely to do or not do. Of course, nobody knows for sure. But I feel like, on many issues, you can work out what is more likely than not to happen; if you placed enough bets you'd probably come out ahead overall.
And to be honest, does anyone really know what Biden is going to do? In the unlikely event he stays on the ticket and somehow wins against the odds in November, is he actually going to last 4 years? Or is he going to resign or die in office? And if you get President Harris instead, does anyone really know what she is going to do? She just seems like "generic Democrat" at the moment. She'll do whatever generic Democrat will do; she'll mostly do what Biden has done, but she'll almost certainly do some things a bit different, and nobody knows what or how.
> That's not something I'm willing to sign up for. I want at least some idea of what his policies will actually be.
If you aren't in Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, it likely really doesn't matter what you are or aren't willing to sign up for.
I think we can have some idea. For example, it is clear that Trump regrets somewhat the overturning of Roe v Wade. He never really cared about the abortion issue – he was just pandering to GOP religious conservatives with his Supreme Court nominations. And then when he saw how many ordinary American women were angry over Dobbs, he began to feel he'd gone too far to the right on the abortion issue. So, a second Trump administration is likely going to be harsher on abortion than the Biden administration is, but still going to resist implementing most of the more extreme demands anti-abortion conservatives will present.
For many other issues: if you study what he did in his first term, the political dynamics involved, leaks of his private conversations (he's more honest in private than in front of a stadium) – you can get a sense of what he's likely to do or not do. Of course, nobody knows for sure. But I feel like, on many issues, you can work out what is more likely than not to happen; if you placed enough bets you'd probably come out ahead overall.
And to be honest, does anyone really know what Biden is going to do? In the unlikely event he stays on the ticket and somehow wins against the odds in November, is he actually going to last 4 years? Or is he going to resign or die in office? And if you get President Harris instead, does anyone really know what she is going to do? She just seems like "generic Democrat" at the moment. She'll do whatever generic Democrat will do; she'll mostly do what Biden has done, but she'll almost certainly do some things a bit different, and nobody knows what or how.
> That's not something I'm willing to sign up for. I want at least some idea of what his policies will actually be.
If you aren't in Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, it likely really doesn't matter what you are or aren't willing to sign up for.