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One of the authors here, first off thanks!

Yes a regression slipping through would far outweigh the benefits of reduced tests. The thing the post didn't make very clear is that thanks to our integration branch, the chance of a missed regression is still nearly zero. If the scheduling algorithm misses something, the failure will show up on a "backstop" push. These are pushes where we run everything, and then a human code sheriff will inspect any failures, and if something was missed figure out what caused it and back it out.

So the costs of missed regressions are: 1) More strain on the sheriffs (too much strain means the need to hire more) 2) More backouts which is annoying to developers and can mess up annotation (though we have ideas to fix the latter).

For the record, the algorithm with the 70% reduction in tests has a regression rate almost on par with the baseline (it's ~3-4% lower). This hasn't seemed to result in much additional strain on the pipeline.



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