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The amazing thing about bubbles is that you can only know that was a bubble only after it explodes but you can never predict it before.


Before 2008 it was amazing how many people outside of economics, finance, and politics were able to see a disaster coming, but almost everyone in those sectors was completely blindsided.


How many of those people held that same view for 5 years before finally being right?

It’s easy to call a market reversal if you’re comfortable calling 9 of the next 2 reversals.


There's plenty of proof that people in those industries saw it coming. The question was when. Some people in them even thought it would pop years before 2008. If you acted on that then you lost despite being right because you didn't get the time horizon correct.


Ok so we just need those people to write a precise definition of "bubble" so we all can see it coming




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